On Wednesday, Bitcoin (BTC) continued to weaken, falling to a weekly low of $9,600 as buyers failed to step up to the plate. As of the time of writing this, the cryptocurrency trades at $9,750, still over 5% higher than the monthly low of $9,150.
Related Reading: Analysts Believe Bitcoin is on The Path to $7,600 As 2018 Bear Market Fractal Continues to Unfold
While some have taken this price action optimistically, claiming that it is only a matter of time before Bitcoin resumes its crusade to proverbially slay the bears, fundamentals and technicals suggest BTC may have further to stumble.
Bitcoin Fundamentals on Shaky Ground
When Bitcoin started to rally in early-April, activity on the asset’s blockchain began to understandably surge, as investors began to speculate with and use BTC once again.
Active addresses and daily confirmed transactions spiked. The daily value of BTC transactions began to trend higher, entering the billions on some days. And most notably, hash rate effectively mooned to fresh all-time highs week-over-week — fortifying BTC as the most secure blockchain network, not to mention the world’s most powerful supercomputer.
However, since Bitcoin has paused after tapping $14,000 just one month ago, network activity has hit a clear roadblock. As CoinMetrics’ Nic Carter points out, “the numbers are going down”. And by “the numbers”, of course, the crypto analytics specialist is referring to the network fundamentals.
I regret to inform you that the numbers are going down pic.twitter.com/ceQ7yHABpO
— nic carter (@nic__carter) July 23, 2019
Although the declines are nothing to write home about, they’re notable. Per the firm’s data from last week and this week, the number of transactions is down 4%, the blockchain’s hash rate has stagnated, the U.S. Dollar value of transactions is down 24%, and the count of active addresses has shed 6%.
Interestingly, the strong decline in network use is not confined to just Bitcoin. In fact, CoinMetrics observed a similar, often more dramatic trend for Ethereum, XRP, and Litecoin — suggesting that for the time being, the rally is on the backburner.
Timothy Peterson, a cryptocurrency investor and analyst, has noticed these diminishing fundamentals too. He recently wrote that this is the first “BTC price stall” in this cycle that has been accompanied by a declining number of active addresses, implying fewer users are actively using Bitcoin for its intended purpose.
— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredcrypto) July 23, 2019
Models Predict a Further BTC Price Decline
The decline active address count isn’t exactly a negative price catalyst per se. But, as previously reported by NewsBTC, Peterson’s model, which relates the actual value and “fair” value of BTC to the number of active addresses, suggests Bitcoin has room to fall.
In fact, last week, he suggested that his model pins Bitcoin’s current fair valuation to $8,000, which is just around 20% lower than current levels. Of course, models aren’t 100% accurate, but should the model hold up, BTC may at least try and approach that price point in the coming days and weeks.
That’s not the only worrying sign. As Dave the Wave, a prominent analyst, recently remarked, the “mini-parabola” that supported BTC from $4,200 to $14,000 has “near definitively” been violated.
With this, Dave believes that Bitcoin will begin to reapproach its long-term trend line, which is a move that the trader expects will put BTC back on a path of decreasing volatility and price discovery.
The 'mini-parabola' near definitively broken its trend…. pic.twitter.com/bVbgRzLZzL
— dave the wave (@davthewave) July 24, 2019
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